2024年中国经济形势展望与政策建议

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Abstract China’s GDP experienced a year-on-year growth by 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2023， showing a stable recovery of economy and is expected to achieve the growth target set at the beginning of the year without question. Looking forward to 2024， factors like the national population decline， technological “blockade”， energy price fluctuations， exchange rate fluctuations， changes in the international political and economic situation， etc. will continue to be important reasons affecting China’s economic development. The natural trend of China’s macroeconomic operation will be a pattern of recovery of both supply and demand， with the supply side recovering faster than the demand side， but still lower than the potential level. In addition， real estate crisis risks， local government debt risks， and the external economic environment will become potential risks that restrict the stable development of China’s economy in the future. In view of the above， the policy objectives in 2024 should still take the demand side as the main focus， and provide necessary support for the stable recovery of the supply side and the continuous improvement of the market environment. The macro-control policy should orient toward expansion of both demand and supply， supplemented by market environment management.In general, China’s economy in 2024 will face more opportunities than challenges, more favorable conditions than adversary elements, and the elements that support high-quality development will continue to accumulate and increase, therefore, we should enhance our confidence in China’s economy.

Key words： 2024 economic outlook economic security natural trends policy goals macro-control

Received: 20 December 2023

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	LIU Wei
	SU Jian

Cite this article:

LIU Wei,SU Jian. Outlook and Policy Advice on China’s Economy in 2024[J]. journal6, 2024, 23(1): 24-36.

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https://xbsk.bjtu.edu.cn/EN/ OR https://xbsk.bjtu.edu.cn/EN/Y2024/V23/I1/24

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