Outlook and Policy Advice on China&rsquo;s Economy in 2024

LIU Wei; SU Jian

PDF(738 KB)

Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University（Social Sciences Edition） ›› 2024, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (1) : 24-36.

Macroeconomic Stuides

Outlook and Policy Advice on China’s Economy in 2024

LIU Wei¹, SU Jian²

Author information +

History +

Abstract

China’s GDP experienced a year-on-year growth by 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2023， showing a stable recovery of economy and is expected to achieve the growth target set at the beginning of the year without question. Looking forward to 2024， factors like the national population decline， technological “blockade”， energy price fluctuations， exchange rate fluctuations， changes in the international political and economic situation， etc. will continue to be important reasons affecting China’s economic development. The natural trend of China’s macroeconomic operation will be a pattern of recovery of both supply and demand， with the supply side recovering faster than the demand side， but still lower than the potential level. In addition， real estate crisis risks， local government debt risks， and the external economic environment will become potential risks that restrict the stable development of China’s economy in the future. In view of the above， the policy objectives in 2024 should still take the demand side as the main focus， and provide necessary support for the stable recovery of the supply side and the continuous improvement of the market environment. The macro-control policy should orient toward expansion of both demand and supply， supplemented by market environment management.In general, China’s economy in 2024 will face more opportunities than challenges, more favorable conditions than adversary elements, and the elements that support high-quality development will continue to accumulate and increase, therefore, we should enhance our confidence in China’s economy.

Key words

2024 economic outlook / economic security / natural trends / policy goals / macro-control

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

LIU Wei, SU Jian. Outlook and Policy Advice on China’s Economy in 2024[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University（Social Sciences Edition）. 2024, 23(1): 24-36

References

1 新华社.信心提升，多家外资金融机构上调2023年中国经济增速预测［EB/OL］.（2023-11-03）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.gov.cn/govweb/yaowen/liebiao/202311/content_6913472.htm.
2 21世纪经济报道.专家共议中国经济三季报：全年GDP增速5%大概率实现消费将成主要支撑［EB/OL］.（2023-10-19）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.163.com/dy/article/IHEBII3F05199NPP.html.
3 国家统计局. 2023年11月份规模以上工业增加值增长6.6% ［EB/OL］.（2023-12-15）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202312/t20231215_1945571.html.
4 国家统计局. 2023年11月份社会消费品零售总额增长10.1% ［EB/OL］.（2023-12-15）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202312/t20231215_1945575.html.
5 国家统计局. 2023年1—11月份全国固定资产投资增长2.9% ［EB/OL］.（2023-12-15）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/202312/content_6920420.htm.
6 国家统计局. 2023年1—11月份全国房地产市场基本情况［EB/OL］.（2023-12-15）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.gov.cn/lianbo/bumen/202312/content_6920420.htm.
7 罗云峰，杨斐然. 11月经济数据点评：资产端继续改善［EB/OL］.（2023-12-17）［2023-12-19］. https：//stock.finance.sina.com.cn/stock/go.php/vReport_Show/kind/search/rptid/756116592669/index.phtml.
8 国海证券. 2023年宏观经济形势与政策展望：能生万物是春风［EB/OL］.（2023-12-19）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.vzkoo.com/read/20231219891c50eb09da523e4edfd118.html.
9 央视网. 海关总署：今年前11个月我国进出口持平，11月份同比增长1.2％［EB/OL］.（2023-12-07）［2023-12-19］. https：//news.cctv.com/2023/12/07/ARTIjOazYKtwcDSRaIvLm4Sb231207.shtml.
10 中宏网. 11月全国CPI同比下降0.5%，PPI同比下降3% ［EB/OL］.（2023-12-07）［2023-12-19］. http：//www.hgjjgl.com/show-190-308451-1.html.
11 新华社. 图表：2023年前11个月我国人民币贷款增加21.58万亿元［EB/OL］.（2023-12-07）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.gov.cn/zhengce/jiedu/tujie/202312/content_6920173.htm.
12 中国人民银行. 2023年11月金融统计数据报告［EB/OL］.（2023-12-13）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.china-cba.net/Index/show/catid/33/id/42839.html.
13 中央经济工作会议（全文）：进一步推动经济回升向好增强信心和底气［EB/OL］.（2023-12-12）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.163.com/dy/article/ILPKFIKH0519D45U.html.
14 国家统计局. 中华人民共和国2022年国民经济和社会发展统计公报［EB/OL］.（2023-02-28）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.gov.cn/xinwen/2023-02/28/content_5743623.htm？eqid=b134a4ec0009631e00000006647dfb47.
15 民政部：截至2022年末，全国65周岁及以上老年人口抚养比21.8% ［EB/OL］.（2023-12-14）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.sohu.com/a/743963714_121218495.
16 国家统计局. 2023年三季度国内生产总值初步核算结果［EB/OL］.（2023-10-19）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202310/t20231019_1943720.html？from=qcc.
17 2023年世界经济展望报告：全球经济复苏缓慢且不均衡［EB/OL］.（2023-10-16）［2023-12-19］. https：//new.qq.com/rain/a/20231016A07LGT00.
18 数据概览：2022年人口相关数据［EB/OL］.（2023-01-31）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.ndrc.gov.cn/fggz/fgzy/jjsjgl/202301/t20230131_1348088_ext.html.
19 前瞻网. 芯片行业的好日子，真的要来了？［EB/OL］.（2023-12-07）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.qianzhan.com/analyst/detail/329/231207-78f8b758.html.
20 国家统计局. 2022年全国GDP同比增长3.0% 四季度GDP同比增长2.9% ［EB/OL］.（2023-01-17）［2023-12-19］. http：//m.caijing.com.cn/api/show？contentid=4913317.
21 地方债余额突破30万亿，六年翻一番［EB/OL］.（2022-02-17）［2023-12-19］. https：//business.sohu.com/a/687197979_121687424.
22 新华社. “推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长”——以习近平同志为核心的党中央引领2023年中国经济高质量发展扎实推进［EB/OL］.（2023-12-10）［2023-12-19］. https：//www.mee.gov.cn/ywdt/szyw/202312/t20231210_1058596.shtml.
23 刘伟，苏剑. 中国特色宏观调控体系与宏观调控政策——2018年中国宏观经济展望［J］.经济学动态，2018，（3）.
24 苏剑.基于总供求模型和中国特色的宏观调控体系［J］.经济学家，2017，（7）.
25 刘伟，苏剑.中国宏观经济态势与政策分析——2022年的回顾与2023年的展望［J］.经济理论与经济管理，2023， 43（3）.