动态风险下面向可持续性与韧性多目标的供应链采购决策研究

郑立乔; 南锦轩; 宋少华; 施先亮

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北京交通大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2025, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4) : 74-88.

物流研究

动态风险下面向可持续性与韧性多目标的供应链采购决策研究

郑立乔¹, 南锦轩¹, 宋少华², 施先亮¹

作者信息 +

Research on Multi-Objective Supply Chain Procurement Decision-Making for Sustainability and Resilience Under Dynamic Risks

ZHENG Li-qiao¹, NAN Jin-xuan¹, SONG Shao-hua², SHI Xian-liang¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

针对动态风险环境下供应链采购决策的复杂性与不确定性，基于马尔科夫链理论构建多周期多目标混合整数规划模型，以优化供应链韧性、可持续性与成本效益的协同决策机制。通过数值模拟与灵敏度分析发现：结合马尔科夫链的决策模型能有效刻画供应商状态的动态演化特征，为企业提供科学的采购决策工具；供应链采购决策中，成本、服务水平和环境绩效存在内在冲突，企业需动态调整目标优先级；多源采购策略显著提升供应链韧性，但需权衡多目标之间的冲突；紧急采购策略虽能缓解供应链中断风险，但需动态平衡其成本与环境影响。基于此，制造企业可构建包含多层级、多供应商的供应网络，建立科学的供应商评估体系，开发决策支持工具，以应对供应链管理中面临的多重目标动态平衡的挑战。

Abstract

Against the complexity and uncertainty of supply chain procurement decisions in a dynamic risk environment， this paper constructs a multi-period， multi-objective mixed-integer programming model based on Markov chain theory to optimize the collaborative decision-making mechanism of supply chain resilience， sustainability， and cost-effectiveness. Through numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis， the study reveals the following findings： First， the Markov chain-based decision-making model can effectively depict the dynamic evolution characteristics of suppliers’ states， thus providing enterprises with scientific procurement decision-making tools； Second， there exist inherent conflicts between cost， service level， and environmental performance in supply chain procurement decisions， requiring enterprises to dynamically adjust the priority of objectives； Third， the multi-source procurement strategy significantly improves supply chain resilience， but it is necessary to balance the conflicts among multiple objectives； Finally， although the emergency procurement strategy can mitigate the risk of supply disruption， its costs and negative environmental impacts need to be incorporated into dynamic evaluation. Therefore， this study suggests that manufacturing enterprises can construct a multi-tiered and multi-supplier supply network， establish a rigorous supplier evaluation framework， and develop decision support tools to address the challenge of dynamic balance among multiple objectives in supply chain management.

导出引用

郑立乔, 南锦轩, 宋少华, 施先亮. 动态风险下面向可持续性与韧性多目标的供应链采购决策研究[J]. 北京交通大学学报(社会科学版). 2025, 24(4): 74-88

ZHENG Li-qiao, NAN Jin-xuan, SONG Shao-hua, SHI Xian-liang. Research on Multi-Objective Supply Chain Procurement Decision-Making for Sustainability and Resilience Under Dynamic Risks[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University（Social Sciences Edition）. 2025, 24(4): 74-88

中图分类号： F274

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