基于双重差分和回归合成模型从整体经济效应、对内贸易、对外贸易、财政收入、融资规模和固定资产投资六个方面，评估海南自贸区（港）政策对区域经济的影响，将“反事实”视角引入经济效益评价中，分析建设成效，深入探讨海南自贸区（港）政策的整体实施效果和具体传导路径。研究结果表明：海南自贸区（港）政策整体经济效益表现优异，对区域经济带动作用显著，且随着政策的实施，时间越长正向效应越明显；消费提振政策全面激活海南对内贸易需求，有效推动了内需增长；贸易开放政策显著提升海南对外贸易水平，吸引了大量外资企业入驻，带动跨境贸易发展；税收优惠政策有效增加财政收入，并直接推动了区域经济的繁荣；金融创新政策进一步拓展海南融资规模，促进区域经济的资本积累；基础设施建设政策强力驱动海南固定资产投资升级，成功吸引了大量外资和民间资本流入，推动区域经济持续发展。为充分发挥政策对区域经济发展的推动作用，进一步提高政策的经济效益，应优化消费促进政策，提升免税消费能级，激活消费乘数效应；优化国际物流和加工产业政策，构建国际物流与加工增值协同体系，升级海南全球贸易枢纽功能；优化财政支持政策，完善财税激励体系，培育可持续税源增长极；优化金融政策，深化金融开放试点改革，拓展跨境投融资便利化场景，构建离岸人民币创新生态；优化基础设施建设政策，加快新基建布局，促进高新技术产业和绿色能源领域投资规模扩大。

This paper， using Difference-in-Differences and synthetic control models， evaluates the impact of the Hainan Free Trade Port policies on the regional economy from six aspects： overall economic effects， domestic trade， foreign trade， fiscal revenue， financing scale， and fixed asset investment. By introducing a “counterfactual” perspective into the economic benefit evaluation， this study reflects on the construction outcomes and explores in depth the overall implementation effect and specific transmission paths of the Hainan Free Trade Port policies. The research results show the following findings： 1） The overall economic benefits of the Hainan Free Trade Port （FTP） policies have shown excellent performance， demonstrating a significant driving effect on the regional economy. Moreover， the longer the policies are implemented， the more obvious the positive effects become； 2） policies to boost consumption have fully activated Hainan’s domestic trade demand， effectively promoting the growth of internal demand； 3） policies to open up trade have significantly enhanced Hainan’s foreign trade level， attracting a large number of foreign-funded enterprises and driving the development of cross-border trade； 4） tax incentives have effectively increased fiscal revenue and directly propelled regional economic prosperity； 5） financial innovation policies have further expanded financing scale in Hainan， facilitating capital accumulation in the region； 6） infrastructure policies have strongly driven the upgrade of fixed asset investment in Hainan， successfully attracting substantial inflows of foreign and private capital， driving sustained regional economic development. Therefore， to fully leverage the impact of policies on regional economies and further enhance their economic benefits， it is necessary to optimize consumption promotion policies， strengthen tax-free consumption levels， and activate the multiplier effect of consumption； optimize international logistics and processing industry policies， build an integrated system for international logistics and value-added processing， and upgrade Hainan’s global trade hub functions； optimize fiscal support policies， improve the tax and financial incentive system， and foster sustainable growth poles of tax source； optimize financial policies， deepen pilot financial openness， expand cross-border investment and financing facilitation scenarios， and construct an innovative offshore RMB ecosystem； optimize infrastructure construction policies， accelerate the layout of new infrastructure， and promote investments in high-tech industries and green energy sectors.