摘要
本文对中国经济波动研究中的重要概念进行了重新阐述与区分：冲击是经济波动的来源，而对经济均衡造成扭曲的“楔子”则是冲击传播的机制，二者并不等同，更不能割裂。在厘清相关概念基础上，从产出、劳动、投资和消费四个角度对中国经济波动的特征和影响因素进行核算，结果表明：效率楔子及经由其传播的冲击是理解中国经济波动的首要因素；劳动楔子对解释中国劳动力市场波动和疫情以来的经济运行特征有重要价值；投资的下滑并非是投资楔子恶化带来的，而是与经济基本面高度相关，但投资楔子对理解中国“低消费”特征有重要意义；不同楔子对经济波动的贡献是动态变化的。本研究利用相应市场楔子对现实中摩擦进行概括测算的思想，对指导在结构模型中如何引入摩擦有重要价值，相关结论对宏观政策取向有一定启发。
Abstract
We elaborate and distinguish some crucial concepts in the research of China’s economic fluctuations. We emphasize that while shock is the source of economic fluctuations， wedge that distorts equilibrium conditions of the economy， is the mechanism through which the shock spreads. The two concepts are not equivalent， nor can they be separated. Having clarified the relevant concepts， we account for the characteristics and influencing factors of China’s economic fluctuations from four perspectives： output， labor， investment and consumption. The results show that efficiency wedges and the corresponding shocks play major roles in explaining China’s economic fluctuations； labor wedge is crucial for interpreting fluctuations in China’s labor markets and the properties of China’s economy after Covid-19； decline in investment is not caused by the deterioration of investment wedges， rather， it is highly correlated with economic fundamentals， but investment wedges do have important meaning in understanding China’s ‘low consumption’ characteristics. Finally， we show that the contribution of different wedges to economic fluctuation is time-varying. The idea of using wedges in the corresponding market to generalize and measure frictions in reality is of great value in guiding how to introduce frictions into the structural model， and the relevant conclusions have inspiration for macroeconomic policies.
关键词
经济波动 /
楔子 /
扭曲 /
冲击 /
BCA方法
Key words
economic fluctuation /
wedge /
distortion /
shock /
BCA method
刘晓光, 满翔宇.
重解中国经济波动[J]. 北京交通大学学报(社会科学版). 2024, 23(1): 49-62
LIU Xiao-guang, MAN Xiang-yu.
Reinterpretation of China’s Economic Fluctuation： Concept， Characteristics and Connotation[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University（Social Sciences Edition）. 2024, 23(1): 49-62
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基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金（中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金）研究品牌计划项目“杠杆率的形成与作用机制及其治理方案研究”（19XNI008）。
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