Prospect of China’s Economic Situation and Policy Expectations in 2025

LIU Wei; SU Jian

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Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University（Social Sciences Edition） ›› 2025, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1) : 26-37.

Applied Economics Studies

Prospect of China’s Economic Situation and Policy Expectations in 2025

LIU Wei¹, SU Jian²

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Abstract

In 2024， China’s GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year. The economy achieved a stable performance while at the same time secured progress， successfully achieving the growth target of around 5 percent set at the beginning of the year. Looking ahead to 2025， domestic and foreign factors such as declining national population， weak market expectations， adjustments in pillar industries， geopolitical risks， and changes in the energy landscape will continue to affect China’s economic development. The natural trend of the China’s economy will be a pattern of contraction in both supply and demand， with the contraction in demand being more significant than that in supply， and the overall economic level remaining below its potential. Risks in the real estate sector， local government debt， exchange rates and currency， as well as trade frictions， will become potential risk points for China’s future economic development. Therefore， the policy objectives in 2025 still need to focus mainly on the demand-side. Meanwhile， necessary support should be provided for the stable operation of the supply-side and the continuous improvement of the market environment. The macroeconomic policy mix should be mainly dual expansion of demand and supply， supplemented by market environment management.

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economic outlook for 2025 / economic security / natural trend / policy objectives / macro-control

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LIU Wei, SU Jian. Prospect of China’s Economic Situation and Policy Expectations in 2025[J]. Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University（Social Sciences Edition）. 2025, 24(1): 26-37

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