考虑路网动态性的危险品运输风险评估方法研究

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摘要城市路网交通流量的动态特性使得城市危险品运输风险评估成为一个复杂的系统性问题。危险品道路运输风险评估应充分考虑城市路网的动态特征，以确保风险评估结果的科学性。本文基于期望风险的评估框架，考虑城市交通路网的动态变化特征和车辆行驶速度变化，将危险品运输视为一个风险随着时间在各路段逐步累积的过程，进而构建动态风险评估方法。研究结果表明：基于动态路网特性提出的城市危险品运输风险评估方法，能够较为精准地评估危险品车辆在动态路网中的风险水平；车辆行驶速度对危险品运输的风险水平影响显著。因此，企业可利用动态风险评估方法优化运输路线，相关管理部门可参考该方法制定更科学、有效的运输策略，提高运输安全的精准化管理水平。

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	崔汗星
	赵启兰
	宋光
	郭俊杰

关键词 ：危险品运输, 动态路网, 风险评估, 车辆行驶速度

Abstract：The dynamic characteristics of traffic flow in urban road networks make the risk assessment of hazardous goods transportation in cities a complex systemic issue. When conducting a risk assessment of road transportation of hazardous goods， the dynamic characteristics of urban road networks should be fully considered to ensure the scientific validity of the results. Based on the expected-risk assessment framework， this paper takes into account the dynamic change characteristics of the urban traffic road network and the variation in vehicle driving speeds， and treats the transportation of hazardous goods as a process in which risks gradually accumulate over time on each road section. Consequently， a dynamic risk assessment method is proposed. The research results indicate that the dynamic road network-based method proposed in this paper can evaluate more accurately the risk levels of hazardous goods transportation within dynamic road networks， with vehicle speed significantly impacting the risk levels of hazardous goods transportation. Therefore， it is advised that enterprises can utilize the dynamic risk assessment method to optimize transportation routes， and relevant management departments may refer to this method to formulate more scientific and effective transportation regulations， thereby enhancing the precision management level of transportation safety.

Key words： hazardous goods transportation dynamic road network risk assessment vehicle driving speed

收稿日期: 2024-07-19

PACS:	F252.1
	U492.8

作者简介: 崔汗星，男，北京交通大学经济管理学院博士研究生。研究方向：物流与供应链管理；赵启兰，女，北京交通大学经济管理学院教授，博士生导师。研究方向：企业物流管理、物流服务能力、物流信息技术；宋光，男，北京交通大学北京产业安全与发展研究基地副研究员。研究方向：全渠道供应链、数字供应链、韧性供应链；郭俊杰，男，北京交通大学经济管理学院博士研究生。研究方向：自有品牌供应链管理、供应链定价；

引用本文:

崔汗星, 赵启兰, 宋光, 郭俊杰. 考虑路网动态性的危险品运输风险评估方法研究[J]. 北京交通大学学报(社会科学版), 2025, 24(1): 63-74. Cui Han-xing, Zhao Qi-lan, Song Guang, Guo Jun-Jie. On Risk Assessment Methods for Hazardous Goods Transportation Considering Road Network Dynamics. journal6, 2025, 24(1): 63-74.

链接本文:

https://xbsk.bjtu.edu.cn/CN/ 或 https://xbsk.bjtu.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V24/I1/63

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